Fury and Chisora met in the ring in 2011 and 2014. In the first fight, Chisora showed good pressing and the desire to win by going with Fury the whole distance. In their second fight, Chisora lost ahead of schedule without going to the 11th round.
According to our team, Chisora lacked endurance in the rematch to carry out the pressure needed to win with such a tall and agile opponent as Fury. Fury is good at boxing on his back leg with a jab, and he will not fall forward at the risk of missing a counter blow. Therefore, Chisora will have to go forward again.
Will Chisora have enough stamina in the third fight to press?
Chisora is almost 39 years old (Fury is 34). He is a veteran with a solid weight and a height of over 6 feet. In a rematch with Pulev, he weighed over 250 lbs. It didn't look bad physically, but then again he worked the second half of the fight throwing a few punches and resting by the ropes.
At the same time, Chisora demonstrated very decent functionality in the fight with Usyk in 2020 and after fights with Parker. Therefore, in the third fight with Fury, surprises are possible… Moreover, the motivation is colossal: a fight for the title.
For at least the first half of the fight, Chisora will be able to carry himself at a good pace. That is, the first 6 rounds are his chance to leverage the fight in his favor. It also matters at what weight Fury himself will be. In the last fight with White, he showed up at almost 265 lbs. Before that with Wilder, just over 270.
If Chisora weighs more than 270, then he will have greater chances to hit hard in the first half of the fight. Fury may not always have time to break the distance with his feet when Chisora delivers repeating attacks.
Will Chisora have enough power to shake Fury in the third fight?
Even if Chisora hits cleanly, he faces a problem in the form of Fury’s good ability to take a hit. If Fury falls, he gets up relatively fine. Fury also does not allow himself to be finished off by his opponent. He knits well and recovers quickly.
Often in a fight, Fury will turn his chin in the final phase of punching an opponent in his direction. This softens the hit and damage from the impact. This type of protection is usually used by fighters like Canelo.
Behind Chisora's punch is of course some serious mass. But in his punches, technically, the legs and pelvis are not so heavily involved, which leads to a decrease in the rigidity of the hits. Based on this, our team believes that the probability of a knockout from Chisora in this fight is minimal.
What are the chances of Chisora winning on points in the third fight?
On points, Chisora has even less of a chance of winning than by knockout. Most likely, because of the same age, physicality is not enough for competitive boxing in the second half of the fight. It is possible that Chisora will take separate rounds on the moral and volitional qualities due to explosiveness. But there’s not enough strength to take most of the rounds. Perhaps it is for this reason that Fury has now chosen to compete with a compatriot whom he has already defeated twice.
Chisora can only hope for the poor physical shape of Fury himself.
Technically, Chisora is very monotonous. Basically, he throws the same two punch combinations and Fury has seen these in action more than once. And as we described earlier, Fury will not openly attack. He will either counter attack or work ahead of the curve. Chisora’s body shots, as the first two fights showed, don't really work with Fury.
Fury has something to work with. There is a jab, right straight, uppercuts, as well as light and fast shifting combinations. In footwork, Fury has a solid advantage. If he does not gain too much weight, this advantage will not disappear.
Can Fury knock out Chisora?
The probability of a knockout from Fury is high. In recent years, he has increased striking power. Most likely, the technical work in this direction had an effect before the second fight with Wilder. Fury showed his uppercut by knocking out White. Chisora, by the way, missed a lot of uppercuts in the second fight with Fury. Therefore, Fury has a knockout blow for Chisora. The question is whether he wants to use it. Moreover, it will be difficult to knock out Chisora with one blow as he holds well.
A safer and more proven option is to simply wear down Chisora by throwing combinations in response or ahead of the curve and closing his attacks with a clinch that also takes away a lot of strength from a shorter opponent.
In general, the physical form of the boxers will matter more than their technique. Technically they already know each other.
Based on all of the above, our team considers Fury's victory in this fight to be the most likely outcome. Whether there will be a knockout from Fury depends on his own motivation and attitude, as well as the form of the veteran Chisora himself.
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